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HomeMIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept

Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept

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Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences

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This discussion defines the concept of the Flaw of Averages, the mathematically false assumption that if we use average values of inputs into the system, we will obtain the average value of the system performance.