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HomeMIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs
MIT IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021
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Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs
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Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed
This video introduces the notion of porcupine graphs, that illustrate the common phenomenon that experts in various fields find it difficult to adjust their forecasts to what is actually happening, and thus can be consistently biased over long periods.